MONTHLY INFLATION: :
Every month is determined an Indication of the Prices in the Consumption or IPC (to see menu method)
The monthly inflation is the evolution of the indication of the month considered in relation to the one of the previous month.
So for September 2004, the indication was of 110,9 and for August 2004, it was of 110,7.
The evolution of the indication was therefore of 110,9 / 110,7 = 1.002 either + 0,2%
The monthly inflation for September 2004 was therefore of + 0,2%..
INFLATION IN YEARLY RHYTHM :
:
For given one month, it is the evolution between the indication of the month and the one of the same month of the previous year.
So for the month of September 2004, the indication was of 110,9 whereas for September 2003, it was of 108,5.
The evolution of the indication was therefore of 110,9 / 108,5 = 1.022 either + 2.2%.
CALCULATION OF THE YEARLY INFLATION RATE:
:To get the rate of inflation for the year, it is necessary to make the average of the inflation in yearly rhythm of the 12 months of the year.
So for 2003 one had:
(2,0 + 2,6 + 2,6 + 2,0 + 1,8 + 2,0 + 1,9 + 1,9 + 2,1 + 2,2 + 2,3 + 2,2) / 12 = 25,6 / 12 = 2.1%
To be more precise, it is necessary to have some data with more of decimals.
In bonus on this site, you have this average on average 12 months slippery! that is to say that every month is calculated the average of the 12 previous months. You have the tendency and an idea of that that will be the inflation of the year thus before this one is finished.
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INFLATION FELT :
Since mid 2001, the inflation discerned by the French is distinctly superior (about the double! ) to the one calculated by the Insee.
The passage to the euro is often accused because it would have allowed some of the increases of price under the table setting of the reference mark loss at the time of the change of motto. Edouard Leclerc went up on the front of the stage to express itself/themselves on the topic. He/it threw back the polemic while contesting the evolution of the purchase power in France. However the power of purchase depends on the evolution of the middle income and the evolution of the inflation, the questioning on the real inflation left then...
However, the Insee argues that if prompt increases on some products took place well, they are integrated anyway in the indicator, it takes it therefore already into account. This effect in global would be made of it very weak.
Otherwise, different banks achieved some analyses on this topic as the Agricultural Credit that isolated the effect important of the cost of the services. Those increase here more quickly than the other stations. Well qu 'integrated in the indicator, it can have a psychological effect and contribute to the impression of a stronger inflation of the one of the Insee.
It is necessary to relativize however because an investigation in the zone Euro shows an Inflation Discerned statistically in strong shift in relation to the one calculated in all countries and this especially in 2002 - 2003 what coincides enough well with the passage to the Euro.
(Graphic below)
This topic being very interesting, I am going shortly to develop it a few more... to follow.
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(Inflation défnitive décembre 2004 = 0.2% au lieu de 0.1% donnée en provisoire)